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Tech firms that ran on plans for the future rather than revenue in the present have been laying off thousands of employees. The problem is that collapsing financial institutions have a habit of bringing down other companies as well. Any of these factors alone could cause problems in the markets next year but especially when combined.

When I put it all together, it means my best guess is looking rosier even while the overall forecast is getting worse.I think the Federal Reserve was about nine months late when it began raising short-term rates— even its own leaders now admit this—but it still was among the first major central banks to act.

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