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The table below breaks out the UN's future population growth predictions by region [5] [6] Projected annual% changes in population for three periods in the future Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. [99] These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. [100] Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. [101] These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth. [101] Newmark, PA; Sánchez Alvarado, A (2002). "Not your father's planarian: a classic model enters the era of functional genomics". Nat Rev Genet. 3 (3): 210–219. doi: 10.1038/nrg759. PMID 11972158. S2CID 28379017.
Most populations do not grow exponentially, rather they follow a logistic model. Once the population has reached its carrying capacity, it will stabilize and the exponential curve will level off towards the carrying capacity, which is usually when a population has depleted most its natural resources. [27] In the world human population, growth may be said to have been following a linear trend throughout the last few decades. [10] The logistic growth of a population PDF). National Statistical Service of Greece: Population census of 18 March 2001. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 25, 2009. Woodroffe, C. D. & Murray-Wallace, C. V. Sea-level rise and coastal change: the past as a guide to the future. Quater. Sci. Rev. 54, 4–11 (2012). Population growth alongside increased consumption is a driver of environmental concerns, such as biodiversity loss and climate change, [12] [13] due to overexploitation of natural resources for human development. [14] International policy focused on mitigating the impact of human population growth is concentrated in the Sustainable Development Goals which seek to improve the standard of living globally while reducing the impact of society on the environment while advancing human well-being. [ citation needed] Population [15] Years Gardner, A. S. et al. A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009. Science 340, 852–857 (2013).
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Even though the global fertility rate continues to fall, chart #2 shows that because of population momentum the global population will continue to grow, although at a steadily slower rate, until the mid 2080s (the median line).
Increase in the number of individuals in a population Absolute increase in global human population per year [1]A more detailed analysis on the dataset, referred to as Document Co-citation Analysis 68, was also conducted. This analysis determines key sub-themes of SLR science, provides a greater level of resolution, and identifies temporal and spatial trends and evolution of those sub-themes and their respective fundamental cited references (Fig. 3). This analysis makes the approach robust to possible missing items in the original dataset. To illustrate this point, if a fundamental reference has been cited enough times within a large dataset, it will be detected, regardless of whether it exists in the dataset or not. This refers to a set (cluster) of references that have been jointly cited (cited references) by researchers publishing in the SLR science space. The principal logic behind this approach is that references which are routinely co-cited (cited together) by articles that have a SLR theme can be grouped together as they would be thematically similar. Each cluster of co-references (cited references) form the knowledge foundation of certain research sub-themes within the SLR literature. In other words, the formed clusters (that have a similar theme) represent distinct sub-themes of research in SLR science. It should be noted that research sub-themes containing fewer than 50 cited references were not considered nor presented (i.e. removed from visualisations). Hermans, T. H. J. et al. Projecting Global Mean Sea-Level Change Using CMIP6 Models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2020GL092064 (2021). The UN Population Division report of 2022 projects world population to continue growing after 2050, although at a steadily decreasing rate, to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086, and then to start a slow decline to about 10.3 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of -0.1%. [6]
Chen, C. Searching for intellectual turning points: Progressive knowledge domain visualization. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 101, 5303–5310 (2004).
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The occurrence and co-occurrence of terms in the title and abstract of articles were used to determine the broad scientific structure and major research themes of SLR science. When the VOS method was applied to the key terms of the titles and abstracts of this field, four major themes were identified including (I) geological dimensions and sea-level indicators, (II) impacts, risks, and adaptation, (III) physical components of sea-level change, and (IV) coastal ecosystems and habitats (Fig. 2a). In Fig. 2, the frequency of co-mention and similarity of terms determine their placement in the figure, and the size of a node represents the frequency of its occurrence. a b c "World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Estimates tab, Total Fertility Rate column". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022. Haunschild, R., Bornmann, L. & Marx, W. Climate Change Research in View of Bibliometrics. PLOS ONE 11, e0160393 (2016). Costanza, R. et al. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Glob. Environ. Change 26, 152–158 (2014). Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística". Dane.gov.co. Archived from the original on 2015-09-05 . Retrieved 2010-08-22.
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